"No other hand type is more sensitive to situational considerations "

About three years ago I had an interesting discussion with a player who I consider to be one of the finest limit hold ‘em players I’ve ever met. We were in a tavern in Denver , working our way through the back-end of a pitcher of Harp, when the discussion (surprise) turned to hold ‘em. The topic was this: ‘What hands are most sensitive to position after the flop?’ That is, of all the different kinds of hands, which ones make the most money (or lose the least) in late position compared to how the same hand plays in early position?

Small pocket pairs? No, we reasoned, it wasn’t small pocket pairs. While small pockets play very differently before the flop in early as opposed to late position, once you get to the flop they basically play themselves no matter what your position (i.e., if you hit a set you dump as much money as possible in the middle, and if you don’t you fold). How about big pocket pairs? Again, no, since pocket aces and kings are, for the purposes of this discussion, eerily similar to small pocket pairs, in that you usually play them close to the same way in early or late position. Suited connectors? Well, we thought, we’re probably getting warmer. Since you often get a little piece of the flop with these hands, but not a lot of it, it’s often much easier to play these hands profitably after the flop in late position rather than early position as you now have a pretty good idea of what it’s going to cost you to continue on with the hand.

Continuing that same line of thought, how about big suited connectors? We labored over this for a while, and the more we thought about it the more convinced we became that we’d finally hit on it. With smaller suited connectors you often have a bit of the flop, but you also often miss the thing completely. But with big suiteds this is almost never the case; you either flop a pair, or you probably have two overcards to the flop with backdoor straight and flush possibilities working. As such, you often find yourself with a bunch of ‘outs’, but only a fraction of them are to the nuts. Which means you’d often like to get to at least the turn, but you’d really rather not pay a fortune to do so, since the more it costs you the less likely it is that your outs are clean. In other words, before you start peeling cards you’d like to have an idea if your ace will be good if you spike it. Also, since you have backdoor possibilities working it becomes more correct to continue on if you miss the flop than it would be with the hand’s non-suited equivalent, since two more good thing can happen: either a) you make a running flush, or b) you catch a card of your suit on the turn, and then catch one of your pair cards on the river.

What it boils down to is this: With a lot—and perhaps the majority—of the flops you catch with big suiteds, it becomes at least marginally profitable to continue on provided that you don’t have to push a truck full of chips in the middle to do so. No other hand type is like this; small pockets are either folding or raising on the flop no matter what their position. Big pockets are (usually) raising no matter what. Small suited connectors are usually folding, but occasionally raising or calling. But big suiteds are very often inclined to continue on so long as they have a fair idea of their opponents’ current hand strengths.

No other hand type is more sensitive to situational considerations than big suiteds. And your best chance for having an understanding of the situational considerations that are relevant to the play of these hands occurs when you’re on or near the button. So what does this mean to the pre-flop play of big suiteds? My belief is that it greatly informs the pre-flop play, since it’s your play before the flop that often ‘sets up’ the play of your hand after the flop. In your typical good-but-not-obscenely-great hold ‘em game, I don’t think it matters much if you raise with hands like AQs before the flop in early position. On the ‘pro’ side, you have a chance of stealing the blinds (if nobody’s yet limped in), or at least building a big pot if you get a gaggle of callers. On the ‘con’ side, you might get three bet, or you might fold hands that would have called one bet (example: you have that same AQs, and your raise gets a player to fold A9o that would have called one bet). In the long run I think this all evens out. But as you get closer to the button raising becomes almost mandatory. Why? For the following two reasons:

1. If nobody else has yet raised it becomes very unlikely that your hand is dominated, thereby giving you the opportunity to get more money in the pot with what is probably the best hand.

2. By raising you will often have provided your hand with the leverage needed to get a cheap look at the turn when you’ve ‘more or less’ missed the flop. Example: You have Ks Qs in early position. Five players to the flop. The flop comes Js 8h 5h, you (correctly) check, and there’s a bettor and one caller behind you. You’d like to take a look at the turn, but you’re hamstrung by the fact that you really have no idea if your overcard outs are clean. If, however, you have that same Ks Qs, only now you’re on the button, you can often look at the turn for free if everyone ‘checks to the raiser’. You’d really like to see the turn in this case, but you’d also really like to do it cheaply. By raising before the flop you’ll have often given yourself that opportunity. Further, if you do hit the flop your pre-flop raise has helped build you a bigger pot.

In the final analysis, getting dealt a big suited hand in late position is far, far more desirable than getting the same hand in early position. By getting the hand near the button you’ll have more opportunities to push small edges, and to continue on into future betting streets. If you’re under the gun with Kh Jh, do whatever makes you happy; limp in, or throw out a raise. But when you’re on the button, and nobody’s yet brought it in for two bets, make sure you’re tossing out two bets worth of chips.